In A “Synchronized” Global Economy, China’s Numbers Are Worrisome

In a January 10 research piece, Capital Economics points to key dots that are not often connected, which is nothing new for the independent research provider. In a global economy, historically geographic regions have exhibited a degree of noncorrelation. For hundreds of years, the economic ripples occurring in China were gently felt in the US. But… Please follow and like us:

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US job gains disappoint, unemployment holds at 4.1%

The US economy’s job creation ability disappointed in December, despite solid hiring in manufacturing and construction, according to government data reported Friday. But with the country believed to be near full unemployment, the jobless rate still held steady at its 17-year low of 4.1 percent. Employers added just 148,000 new hires in the final month of… Please follow and like us:

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China Gears Up to Reduce Impact of US Tax Cut

Chinese companies with international ambitions are caught in a serious dilemma by the U.S. move to cut corporate tax rates. The move has made the U.S. an attractive destination for Chinese companies facing very high taxes and other restrictions at home. On the other hand, they face the risk of being punished by Chinese authorities who… Please follow and like us:

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Who Is Going To Call The Top In Bitcoin? Morgan Stanley Says They Might Have A Model

In the alternative investment industry, there is an unpublished list of all-time excellent risk management trades. There is Balyasny Asset Management logically modeling in 2015 that the US Federal Reserve withdrawing quantitative stimulus might lead to a crash and adjusting its risk management overlay accordingly. There is Jim Chanos and Kynikos Associates calling out fraud at… Please follow and like us:

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China’s central bank bumps up rates in ‘mini-tightening’

China will likely tighten monetary policy next year while increasing policy flexibility to ensure sufficient credit supply and to prevent overtightening from hurting the economy, economists said on Thursday after the US Federal Reserve rate hike. The People’s Bank of China, the central bank, raised the rates of seven-day and 28-day reverse repo agreements (through which… Please follow and like us:

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The Fed Boiling Frog Strategy

With the US Federal Reserve set to meet Tuesday and Wednesday, and interest rates expected to rise as a result, what will the rate hike path look like in 2018? To Bank of America Merrill Lynch’s Global Economist Ethan Harris, understanding the Fed and their future actions requires taking a long view that goes beyond one… Please follow and like us:

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Goldman Sachs Explains “Rational Exuberance”

The stock market is going to rise a healthy 8% in 2018, predicts Goldman Sach’s Chief US Equity Strategist David Kostin, but the technology sector might not be the tailwind it once was. Driving the move higher will be a “rational” increase in earnings per share, driven to a degree by tax cuts, which benefit large… Please follow and like us:

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RBS: Goldilocks Markets Ahead

When looking at 2018 modeling, NatWest Markets sees a lot of the old mixed in with a bit of new. But there are values to be had. Looking at the year ahead, the arm of the Royal Bank of Scotland is keeping an eye on the US Fed, warning not to take them for granted, as… Please follow and like us:

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US Fed nominee Powell: Case for raising rates in Dec ‘coming together’

President Donald Trump’s pick to lead the US Federal Reserve said Tuesday there is a strong case for raising the benchmark interest rate at the central bank’s December policy meeting. In an unusually direct comment for normally-reticent central bankers, Fed governor Jerome Powell told the Senate Banking Committee, “I think that the case for raising interest… Please follow and like us:

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Capital Economics Says Gold Is Going To Fall

As the US Federal Reserve prepares for a transition on multiple levels – withdrawing addictive quantitative stimulus while engaging in wide-ranging personal shifts at the top – trends are starting to break out. While industrial metals were higher in October, precious metals were lower — and they may have further to go, particularly with regard to… Please follow and like us:

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AI-based Facial Recognition Used To Decode Central Banker’s Inner Thoughts

As the world of artificial intelligence is racing with humanity into the future, deep moral questions are being raised about the efficacy and even sustainability of the current path. When AI-based facial recognition was used to identify the sexual orientation of men with up to 91% accuracy, for instance, it resulted in shockwaves. A computer could… Please follow and like us:

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Central bankers bet weak inflation won’t last forever

The European Central Bank expects a pickup in inflation even though wages have remained weak during the current economic recovery, its vice president, Vitor Constancio, said Sunday. Constancio was joined in Washington by other central bank leaders, who likewise said they expected inflation to rise at some point despite its perplexing weakness across advanced economies. “The… Please follow and like us:

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Top Six Banks Spend $26 Billion On Bond Trading Technology

Technological prowess is becoming a powerful point of differentiation for participants in the US government bond markets. As the costs to drive a successful trading business in the niche have grown to significant proportions, a window is opening for smaller niche players, however, as the human touch is still required to succeed. Get The Full Ray… Please follow and like us:

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ECB hints at drawn-out end to bond-buying

The European Central Bank may take a longer path to the end of its mass bond-buying scheme than observers expect as it confronts stubbornly low inflation, the institution’s chief economist hinted Monday. “We are still some distance away from a sustained adjustment” in inflation towards the bank’s target of just below 2.0 percent — believed to… Please follow and like us:

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US Federal Reserve keeps interest rates unchanged

The US Federal Reserve kept its benchmark interest rate unchanged Wednesday and announced the gradual end to a crisis-era stimulus program in a sign the economy is on sound footing. The Fed statement following its two-day policy meeting noted that the devastation caused by Hurricanes Harvey, Irma and Maria are “inflicting severe hardship” on communities. However,… Please follow and like us:

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